Is Trump Thinking of Not Running Again?
Although the 2022 midterm elections are fast approaching, with control of Congress hanging in the balance, the question of whether Donald Trump volition once again try to seek the presidency in 2024 continues to hover over national political discussions.
Pols, pundits and former assembly of Trump are split well-nigh whether he volition toss his hat in the band a third time. Michael Cohen, the president's former chaser and "fixer," told CNN concluding year that Trump'southward "fragile ego cannot stand to be considered a two-time loser." On the other hand, many analysts — including me — believe that Trump may very well take another crack at returning to the White Business firm in 2024. In a recent piece, I argued that no matter the stakes, Trump will likely have no other option than to run again, given the wide assortment of legal problems bearing down on him, his family members and his business interests.
This offhand comment — ane that manifestly came every bit something of an reconsideration toward the cease of the interview — sent shock waves through the political establishment
So, with and then much at pale for him personally, as well as for his party and the country, it was notable that, in a recent interview with The Washington Post, the former president floated the possibility that his wellness could become an important factor in weighing whether he would run again in 2024: "You always have to talk near wellness. You look similar you're in expert health, but tomorrow, you get a letter of the alphabet from a doctor maxim come encounter me again. That's not good when they apply the discussion again."
This offhand comment — one that apparently came as something of an afterthought toward the end of the interview — sent shock waves through the political establishment, considering it was the first time that Trump, who has been notoriously secretive about sharing his health records with the public, seemed to admit that health issues might influence his decision to run. He has frequently been deliberately misleading and even dishonest about his health, and for him to proactively bring information technology upwards every bit a potential reason non to run in 2024 is something of a watershed moment. Just Trump being Trump, what you come across or hear is not exactly what yous get, and information technology would be ill-advised to have his comments at face value.
There are three possible ways to translate Trump's recent comments, all of which have important political consequences for national politics and fifty-fifty the international stage.
Beginning, he may really take some serious undisclosed health bug. Trump, who would be 78 past the fourth dimension he would accept office if he were to win another term, has had admission to the world'south best health care. Just his advanced age, his 2020 tour with the coronavirus, coupled with obesity, and what has been well documented as a generally unhealthy lifestyle may be catching up with him. In that location has as well been rampant speculation that he may fifty-fifty be in the early on stages of dementia. It is not inconceivable that, in a rare moment of candor, Trump may have said out loud what he may exist hearing from his medical squad — that he simply cannot physically or mentally suffer the rigors of another presidential campaign, much less another four years in part.
2d, maybe Trump never intended to run, and he will use his wellness to justify having strung out speculation about his political return for and then long. I, along with presumably millions of other people, recently received an email from Trump on behalf of Save America, an entity that raises funds on behalf of his Salvage America and Make America Smashing Again political activity committees, celebrating his alleged hole-in-i while he was playing against "some of the greatest golfers in our land." His supporters were invited to aid celebrate his accomplishment by altruistic a minimum of $75 to his political organization in commutation for a signed picture of him on the green.
This entreaty from Trump is simply the latest in a barrage of electronic missives soliciting money from MAGA nation. Since leaving office, Trump has continued to milk his base of operations of loyal supporters for every possible last dime. Cohen has called Trump's post-presidential fundraising performance "nothing more than the earth'southward greatest grift" and said that Trump is "bringing in money greater than when he had the Trump Organization with all of its assets." Since leaving the White Firm, Trump has raised over $130 million from his loyal fan base, largely because many feel that he will brand a return to politics.
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But at some point, the prophylactic will come across the road, and he volition have to either announce a third run or cutting allurement. Assuming he has never had much intention of making some other bid among fears of losing a second time to Joe Biden, he will need a convenient and unassailable excuse for why he is not running after having raked in so much dough. Citing mounting health concerns is the perfect way out of an otherwise messy and compromising situation he has created vis-à-vis his donors.
A final possibility is that Trump is sending out a trial balloon. Dangling that potential health issues might preclude him from running reminds me of a famous quote from Chinese war philosopher Sun Tzu: "Appear weak when you are strong, and potent when you are weak." Suggesting that wellness issues may preclude him from running might be an effort to come across how other Republicans react. Practice GOP heirs-apparent such every bit Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis pounce on what might be construed every bit Trump'southward weakness to gain an advantage ahead of 2024, or do they rally behind the former president in a show of continued loyalty? Trump's ego will make information technology very difficult for him to step aside and hand over the reins of the GOP to a new jockey; if anything, he will want to exist seen equally a kingmaker and will carefully evaluate potential successors to the MAGA movement, enervating complete loyalty. Dropping hints about wellness issues may exist role of that vetting procedure to see whom he volition exist able to control in one case he steps aside.
I still believe that the odds that Trump will run are greater than non. Just terminal week, he teased another presidential run at a political rally in North Carolina. Either way, it will exist interesting to see whether he returns to his health issues in the run-up to 2024.
Related:
- I investigated Watergate. Here'southward why Trump's phone log gap is beyond suspicious.
- Differences between Trump'due south and Biden's DOJ are on brandish in Hunter Biden probe
- Mike Pence committed a key sin by the GOP'due south standards. He tin can buss 2024 bye.
Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trumps-comment-health-watershed-moment-2024-election-rcna24298
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